October 2013: Zip Code 33629 contrasted to South Tampa Real Estate Market
The real estate market is fluid, contextual, and varies from neighborhood to neighborhood. The overall real estate market is impacted by macroeconomic forces such as employment levels and income, credit availability, and interest rates. Some of the local influences include schools, job locations and transportation. With the dynamics influencing the real estate market it is important to consult with a Realtor.
The overall trend in the Tampa Bay area and South Tampa has been for a sense of slowed growth from the fast paced spring and summer months. Over the next few months we will be able to see the results of either a “normal” fall dip in activity, or we will see a market slowing to a balance. The market slow down would have many facets, from the minor increase in the historically low interest rates, the reaction to flood insurance changes, or the dynamics of housing affordability as related to income. Naturally, if there was a crystal ball to predict timing and the cause of trends in the market….
Getting ready for a listing appointment in the 33629 section of South Tampa has given me the opportunity to review information for South Tampa and for the zip code. I will save the in depth analysis for the seller, but the overview is something others may benefit from. For the parameters of this report I used the Multiple Listing Service with a search set by zip code, single family residence, sold in the last 90 days from 11/10/13, and active on the market as of the same date. I compared this zip code information with very similar parameters for the geographic area of South Tampa between Gandy and Kennedy to include Davis Island and Harbor Island. The date of that report is 11/11/13.
|Sold property: last 90 days analysis from 11/10/13: zip code 33629|
|Sold||bedroom||bath||square feet||sold price||sold per sq ft||sp/sq ft ratio||days to contract|
Great news for sellers in the zip code is that the median time on the market remains favorable at 25 days: half the homes sold were under contract in less than 25 days, the remaining went under contract beyond 25 days. The first four weeks remain decisive on knowing if your house is winning the beauty contest of marketing, and if your house is priced correctly to sell. Taking a look at South Tampa numbers below, 33629 does have lower median days on market compared to South Tampa, along with slightly lower average and median prices. The average and median size of the house is also smaller for 33629.
|Sold Data for South Tampa Incl Davis Isle. and Harbor Isle. in last 90 days from date|
|Sold||bedroom||bath||square feet||sold price||sold per sq ft||sp/list price ratio||days to contract|
An interesting note in looking at the graphs below is the contrast and change in overall “inventory”.
|Months on Hand by Price for South Tampa, 11/11/13|
|Price||Active||90 days of Sold||Months on hand|
|$49,999 or under||0||0||0.00|
|$50,000 – $99,999||0||0||0.00|
|$100,000 – $149,999||4||6||2.00|
|$150,000 – $199,999||9||6||4.50|
|$200,000 – $249,999||15||23||1.96|
|$250,000 – $299,999||19||14||4.07|
|$300,000 – $349,999||9||21||1.29|
|$350,000 – $399,999||27||15||5.40|
|$400,000 – $499,999||30||21||4.29|
|$500,000 – $599,999||38||27||4.22|
|$600,000 – $699,999||42||22||5.73|
|$700,000 – $799,999||22||12||5.50|
|$800,000 – $899,999||23||17||4.06|
|$900,000 – $999,999||13||9||4.33|
|$1,000,000 or over||83||19||13.11|
|Months on Hand by Price for 33629, 11/11/13|
|Price||Active||90 days of Sold||Months on hand|
|$49,999 or under||0||`||0.00|
|$50,000 – $99,999||0||0||0.00|
|$100,000 – $149,999||0||0||0.00|
|$150,000 – $199,999||6||1||18.00|
|$200,000 – $249,999||8||12||2.00|
|$250,000 – $299,999||7||10||2.10|
|$300,000 – $349,999||6||14||1.29|
|$350,000 – $399,999||18||10||5.40|
|$400,000 – $499,999||15||13||3.46|
|$500,000 – $599,999||17||15||3.40|
|$600,000 – $699,999||23||10||6.90|
|$700,000 – $799,999||9||8||3.38|
|$800,000 – $899,999||12||10||3.60|
|$900,000 – $999,999||4||4||3.00|
|$1,000,000 or over||25||6||12.50|
More good news for home sellers in zip code 33629 is the stronger trend for a seller’s market as expressed with 3.98 months of inventory relative to the South Tampa inventory measure of 4.73 months of inventory. One noteworthy number is the inventory in 33629 of homes less than $200,000. The average days on the market for the active homes are 62, which is very close to the average for the overall 33629 market. Time will tell if this is a fluke in the numbers or if this is a trend. While the numbers are not presented, the reported downward trend in the pending sales index both nationally and in the Tampa Bay area is pushing the market toward a balance between buyers and sellers. This is not quite as pronounced in the specific zip code 33629 with its lower inventory, especially in the $200,000-$350,000 price range of homes.
The interesting aspect of looking at correlations is the numbers emphasized can develop the message. Developing the right message in the context of the individual need is one of the many talents of a real estate agent. These numbers presented relate more to an area than a house: if you want your house evaluated relative to the trends, give me a call or send me an e-mail!
For this report, here are some definitions and explanations for the charts. I’ll post this separately and link back to it on future reports.
Style of reporting and definitions-
Average verses mean: Using the mean tends to diminish the numerical effect of houses sold at the extreme of a measure; an example of extremes is measuring days on market with properties that have sold in 0 days or in more than 700 days. Think of it this way: in 10 sales with 9 going into contract in around 10 days and one, possibly overpriced for its condition, going under contract in 700 days. Average days on market become 79, and the mean is 10. I would think the mean is more relevant to a seller or a buyer in this case and many others. The focus on the mean number verses the average number will also depends on the subject house, and understanding the source of any extremes reported.
Inventory is an expression to measure the velocity of sales relative to the houses available. First, calculate velocity by restating the number of units sold to a number per month that sell. For example, if 9 homes sold in the last 3 months, 3 homes per month is the velocity of the market. The next measure is of the houses available for sale at that point in time. Using the assumption for measurement purposes that there will be no new houses listed, and the only exit for the currently available houses is a sale, develop a number that represents how long in months at the current rate of sales will it take to sell the current market to 0. Using the same 9 houses sold in 3 months example: if on the reported date there are 12 houses available for sale, 12 would be divided by 3 to equal 4 months of inventory, or restated in the lingo: there are 4 months of inventory, or a seller’s market.
Interpretations of inventory as it relates to a seller’s market, a buyer’s market and balanced market. In the real estate world, markets are very local. To bring real estate to a conversational level, various statistically derived numbers are characterized and labeled in order to have an intelligent conversation about real estate. Inventory, and the buyer’s market, seller’s market and balanced market terms all stem from this desire to measure and converse about real estate. For conversations, a buyer’s market begins when there is an inventory measure of greater than 6 months, usually starting around 7 months. A seller’s market is lower than 6 months, usually starting at 5 months or less. Why not 6 months even? Well, that is a precise number: granted, if you are reporting numbers that are rounded to the whole number that would make sense. In my reporting, trends are discovered by looking at numbers to the tenths or hundredths place, especially for comparison purposes.